Prediction markets for Science

Prediction markets have recently been established as popular forecasting tools. By organizing markets on research projects, we are exploring how such markets can contribute to the objectives of scientific research.

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Timeline

Date Event
Nov 2014 The UK REF market is open for two weeks.
Oct-Nov 2014 The 2nd open science replication market is open for two weeks.
Sept-Oct 2014 The market for the Many Labs 2 Project is open for two weeks.
Spring 2013 The market on the genetic association between depression and 5-HTTLPR is run.
Nov 2012 The 1st open science replication market is open for two weeks.

Upcoming and ongoing markets

UK REF

The Research Excellence Framework (REF) in the UK is a new system for assessing UK research. We have had participants bet on the outcome of the REF before the outcome was known, for two different types of departments.

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RP: Cancer biology

The Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology, a collaboration between Science Exchange and the Center for Open Science, is independently replicating 50 high-impact cancer biology studies published between 2010-2012 using the Science Exchange network of expert scientific labs. Our participants will bet on which studies will be successfully replicated.

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