Prediction markets for Science

Prediction markets have recently been established as popular forecasting tools. By organizing markets on research projects, we are exploring how such markets can contribute to the objectives of scientific research.

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Publications

Evaluating Replicability of Laboratory Experiments in Economics

Science, 351 (6280), pp.1433-1436

Authors: Camerer, Colin F., Anna Dreber, Eskil Forsell, Teck-Hua Ho, J├╝rgen Huber, Magnus Johannesson, Michael Kirchler, Johan Almenberg, Adam Altmejd, Taizan Chan, Emma Heikensten, Felix Holzmeister, Taisuke Imai, Siri Isaksson, Gideon Nave, Thomas Pfeiffer, Michael Razen, and Hang Wu

DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf0918

Using Prediction Markets to Forecast Research Evaluations

Royal Society Open Science 2015 2 150287

Authors: Munafo, Marcus R., Thomas Pfeiffer, Adam Altmejd, Emma Heikensten, Johan Almenberg, Alexander Bird, Yiling Chen, Brad Wilson, Magnus Johannesson, and Anna Dreber

DOI: 10.1098/rsos.150287

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(50), pp.15343-15347

Authors: Dreber, Anna, Thomas Pfeiffer, Johan Almenberg, Siri Isaksson, Brad Wilson, Yiling Chen, Brian Nosek, and Magnus Johannesson

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1516179112